The long run to the first turn in the Mexican GP promises chaos today, especially with a potential new clash in the title fight between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris. As if that’s not enough for an exciting race, there’s also a super-fast Ferrari aiming to repeat last week’s one-two finish. Can we expect a spectacular show? You bet.
Spicy food is something many Mexicans don’t shy away from. That’s fortunate, because there are plenty of ingredients at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez today to make the Grand Prix a delicious and spicy affair. There are several drivers who, for various reasons, stand to benefit from a win or a good result. But whose hunger for success will be most satisfied?
Chaos in Mexico
Get comfortable at 19:00 UTC tonight, because you won’t want to miss the first few seconds and minutes. The chance of chaos after the start in Mexico is very real. The run to the first turn is a whopping 830 meters (!), offering opportunities for all drivers in roughly the top 4 to vie for the leading position. Who will take the most risk: Sainz, Verstappen, Norris, or Leclerc?
Keep an eye on the latter: he was also the man in Austin who, from P4, seized the lead in the first turn because the rest were mainly battling each other. A repeat of that scenario is not unthinkable. And due to the high speed towards the first turn, unlike last week, one of the top drivers could also easily drop out early due to a touch or worse.”And what about the group behind them? You can bet that Sergio Pérez, starting from P18, wants to make up for the embarrassment in front of his home crowd. Oscar Piastri also faces a catch-up race. Drivers like Yuki Tsunoda and Fernando Alonso, frustrated by missing out on Q3, also seek redemption. Therefore, incidents after the start in the midfield are hardly avoidable.
Verstappen versus Norris
Among the four favorites in Mexico are Verstappen and Norris. The Dutchman has repeatedly shown this season that he pushes to the limit – and exactly as far as is allowed – in defending against Norris’ attacks. With this, Verstappen has skillfully outperformed the Brit on numerous occasions (such as in Austria and the United States). Only when Norris is significantly faster, is Verstappen truly outmatched (as in Zandvoort).
However, if Norris, with his 57-point deficit, still wants to make a move in the drivers’ championship, he will need to outsmart Verstappen with a stunning move. Can he do it, does he dare? Of course, it’s easy to talk from the sidelines. But the question arises: will there be an all-or-nothing attempt from Norris after last week? Verstappen himself, as calm as he is, will not worry about it in advance.
Podcast Paddock Talk: ‘Norris will never be the killer that Verstappen is’
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Ferrari Smells Victory
Carlos Sainz is eager to win from pole position, perhaps more than ever. He is increasingly aware of the bittersweet reality that victories will be scarce next year at Williams. While he is still driving for Ferrari, and the car is capable of winning, he wants to achieve success. Both for himself and for the team that has set its goal to win the constructors’ title.
The latter is not so far-fetched. Ferrari is only 8 points behind Red Bull and just 48 behind McLaren. “But with a one-two finish like last week in Austin, things can move quickly,” Sainz knows. The last time he started from pole position (Singapore, 2023), he managed to win the Grand Prix. And if not, there’s still Leclerc who showed in Austin that he hasn’t forgotten how to win for the scarlet brigade.
The Influence of Thin Air
Besides all the ‘normal’ power dynamics and interests at play, there is another significant factor in Mexico. Due to the high altitude, the air is thin. And this undoubtedly affects the driving behavior and the course of the race.
In Mexico, the aerodynamic performance falls short of what teams and drivers are used to, there is less downforce. Simply put, a car is less pressed onto the road than during races at sea level or slightly above. In other words: there is less grip. Additionally, the car is harder to cool in the already warm Mexico City due to the thin air.
This, plus the influence of the airflow when you’re driving close behind someone (or not), will play a role during the race. And the race already has so many reasons to turn into a spectacle. In short: the Mexican GP has all the ingredients to become one of the most exciting races of this season.
And furthermore…
…the race consists of 71 laps
…a lap is 4304 meters long
…Max Verstappen starts from P2 for the third race in a row
…Ferrari is the only team so far where both drivers have secured a pole position
…the race starts at 21:00 Dutch time
