The era of Max Verstappen’s dominance appears to be over. In fact, Verstappen himself stated on Saturday in Barcelona that McLaren has surpassed Red Bull. What does this mean for the race? Let’s delve into our preview. We’ll explore five key questions, including why Lando Norris is the favorite to start, and why that doesn’t necessarily guarantee a win.
1. Impressive Pole Position, But What Does It Mean?
“The run to turn 1 is long on this circuit (595 meters), so being the first to start doesn’t necessarily give a significant advantage,” Norris rightly noted after the qualification. He secured the pole position for the second time, with his last one exactly 1001 days ago (September 25, 2021, Sochi). The long run from the start, as the Englishman wanted to point out, means your competitors can take advantage of you and overtake you in the opening meters.
“True,” agrees Max Verstappen. “But from P2, for example, I need to have a good start myself. And besides, we don’t differ much in terms of power.” In other words, if Norris has a reasonable to good start, Verstappen doesn’t immediately see many opportunities to overtake the Englishman in the first few hundred meters.
2. Advantage for Red Bull?
One advantage for Red Bull, and certainly for Verstappen compared to Norris, is the experience of winning races. The current McLaren team has had a string of bad years. “Look where we’ve come from,” Norris is all too aware. “To win consistently, we still have a lot to learn.”
Mastering the Art of Winning: A Look at Red Bull’s Strategy
Desiring to win is one thing, but knowing how to win is another. The line between the two can be thin. However, Red Bull, especially in the person of Verstappen, certainly masters the latter. This could prove advantageous on potential crucial moments for the three-time world champion and his team on Sunday afternoon, UST. This was evident in the previous race in Canada. Red Bull made a good call to pit, McLaren did not. “We only had two seconds to decide. But our choice was the wrong one. That needs to improve, also from my side,” said Norris.
Understanding Race Pace: How Does It Work?
If Verstappen had to concede to others in qualifications over the past years, there was almost always the reassuring thought for him, his team, and his fans that he could then set things straight on Sunday with a good race pace. And so it often happened. However, according to him, that dominance has disappeared.
“McLaren is currently better than us. Because they are ahead of us,” said the Dutchman after the qualification. And the race pace? “Well, looking at last Friday: McLaren looked strong. So it will be difficult to do something in that area. The team is good, everywhere, on every type of circuit. In the long runs, on their tires. McLaren simply has a very good package.”
Weather Conditions: Cooler and Possibly Rainy?
Perhaps, just perhaps, it might rain. That could influence the race. But what if it stays dry, or the rain has already fallen in the morning and there is therefore a drying track? The temperatures are expected to be lower than on Saturday. According to Verstappen, this is not an advantage, nor necessarily a disadvantage.
Luckily for the Dutchman, the car is better than on Friday, he already mentioned after the qualification. So whatever the weather, it always offers a chance of winning. However, Norris in his fast McLaren is definitely the favorite due to the pole position, and Verstappen is the challenger this time.
What Will Mercedes and Ferrari Do?
Perhaps Mercedes can still get involved in the battle for victory through Lewis Hamilton from P3, although that seems a bridge too far based on the race pace. It is also important for Toto Wolff’s men that they have Ferrari breathing down their necks. The Italians, as so often, are having a season with ups and downs. For them, a podium place is the highest achievable. You can bet that Spanish driver Carlos Sainz would give a lot for that in his homeland.
Additional Facts…
- The track is 4657 meters long
- There will be 66 laps
- Fernando Alonso achieved his last victory on this circuit (2013)
- There were 107 overtaking maneuvers last year
- An average pit stop loses about 22 seconds
