Max Verstappen winning the Japanese GP? According to the Dutchman himself, that’s unlikely. And we believe him. However, he also didn’t expect to secure pole position, so who knows? Miracles might still happen in Suzuka. “But it will be tough,” admits Verstappen. Will rain be his savior, will there be a different strategy, or will McLaren’s luxury problem provide a solution? Time for the preview: here’s what to watch out for.
1. Verstappen’s Chances
What a relief on the radio after his 41st pole. A pole that will go down as one of his most surprising. Even for him. “I was surprised,” Verstappen admitted after qualifying.
However, the car still has plenty of issues. This doesn’t bode well for the race. “I think it will be tough, so far we haven’t been very strong in the races this season. We’re doing a bit better in the race runs, but the problems haven’t magically disappeared.”
So, should we hope for rain? The four-time and reigning world champion tempers expectations. “In the rain in Australia, we didn’t do very well on the intermediates either.”
2. Weather and Tyres
As the Dutch Saturday evening and the Japanese night (seven-hour time difference) fell, the chance of rain during the race was 40 percent. So, it’s touch and go whether there will be a shower on the Suzuka circuit during the already exciting race. It will be suspenseful until the last moment to see what the weather radar indicates.
It will affect the race. The teams already have little input from the often interrupted free practice sessions this weekend, and rain means the cards will be reshuffled. If it stays dry, McLaren has the best cards in terms of race pace. The question then is what will happen with the strategy.
The first sector of the circuit has a new layer of asphalt. This reduces ‘graining’ and wear on the rubber, so according to tire supplier Pirelli, a one-stop strategy is the best tactic. Last year, a two-stop strategy was still the norm: among others, winner Sergio Pérez applied this in Japan, as did podium finishers Carlos Sainz and Fernando Alonso.
Perhaps there will be a gamble in the midfield by, for example, Pierre Gasly (from the still point-less Alpine) or Fernando Alonso (from the struggling Aston Martin). They are two of the handful of drivers who still have a new set of soft tires left. This could potentially be good for an alternative strategy.
3. McLaren: The Luxury Problem Continues
Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have been closely matched in the first three race weekends. Sometimes one is better, then the other. Both have speed, but they were astounded when they saw Verstappen outperform them in the fight for pole position. Together, they now have to take on the Dutchman, knowing that their car is superior and thus both have chances to win. But who will make way for whom? Probably neither of them want to, so this could be Verstappen’s salvation in Japan on Sunday: two teammates fighting behind him for the right to be the strongest within their own team.
If McLaren is wise, a clear instruction will follow: whoever is ahead at the first corner gets the chance to attack Verstappen until the pit stop, the other will have to know his place for a while. We will see!
And furthermore…
- A lap on Suzuka is 5807 meters long
- The race counts a total of 53 laps
- There are 18 turns on the circuit
- The first GP on this track took place in 1987
